Following the recent by India into Pakistani territory during a period of ostensible peace, and amidst along the Kashmir border, there are growing concerns about a potential escalation between the two nuclear powers.
Beyond conventional warfare, India has allegedly threatened to use water as a weapon, a move Pakistan has warned would be considered an “Act of War.”
According to Pakistan’s armed forces, the recent Indian strikes targeted Pakistan’s . This occurred shortly after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated India’s intention to divert water for its own use.
“Now, India’s water will flow for India’s benefit, it will be conserved for India’s benefit, and it will be used for India’s progress,” Modi Tuesday stated.
India recently suspended its adherence to a 65-year-old water-sharing treaty following “”—referring to an on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir by a Pakistani militant group, despite Pakistan’s denial of involvement.
Pakistan has responded by that any attempt by India to halt water flow, given its upstream position, “will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”
The was facilitated by the World Bank in 1960, subsequent to the independence and partition of India and Pakistan in 1947. The treaty allocated the six rivers of the Indus basin, granting India control over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—while ensuring Pakistan’s access to the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. This agreement was crucial for regional stability, considering both nations’ reliance on the Indus basin for agricultural irrigation.
Some Indian commentators have argued that the treaty was excessively “” to Pakistan, effectively granting it access to despite being located downstream. The treaty restricts India from constructing infrastructure that impedes or redirects the flow of the western rivers, except for limited agricultural use and hydroelectric power generation. Despite past conflicts, India largely respected the treaty until its recent suspension in April.
The treaty’s suspension poses a significant threat to Pakistan’s economy, where agriculture constitutes . Himanshu Thakkar, a water resources expert, noted to the newspaper that “The majority of Pakistan’s irrigation, hydropower generation, electricity production, and overall development are heavily reliant on the Indus basin.”
However, the extent of India’s capacity to completely block water flow to Pakistan remains uncertain. Experts suggest that India lacks the necessary dam infrastructure for total control. Nevertheless, on May 4, India reportedly reduced water flow to Pakistan through the Chenab River by up to 90% by lowering sluice gates at the Baglihar dam, according to . Similar actions are allegedly planned for the Kishanganga project on the Jhelum River.
Hassan F. Khan, an assistant professor at Tufts University, wrote in that while India cannot entirely cut off water flow, violating the treaty would have a greater impact during the dry season (December to May), when flows are lower, storage is more critical, and timing is crucial.
Another potential tactic is withholding flood data. Pradeep Kumar Saxena, India’s former Indus Water Commissioner, told the news agency that after the treaty’s suspension, India could cease sharing data with Pakistan, which would be particularly detrimental during the monsoon season.