March 31 will be remembered as a significant day for Marine Le Pen, and a positive one for French democracy.
On Monday, a French court ruled that Le Pen, along with over 20 officials from the far-right National Rally (RN) party, were guilty in a widespread embezzlement scheme. Prosecutors alleged that they had illegally diverted €3 million ($3.1 million) in EU funds over a decade. The court, in accordance with French law, also barred nine politicians involved from holding office. Judge Bénédicte de Perthus explained that the court decided to apply the condition of automatic ineligibility to Le Pen, the scheme’s leader, due to the severity of the case and the RN’s persistent failure to acknowledge the allegations, suggesting a risk of repeated offenses.
The message conveyed was clear: No one is above the law, even a prominent presidential candidate who was close to gaining power.
The verdict significantly hampers Le Pen’s chances of running in the 2027 presidential election, in addition to the four-year prison sentence she is facing (two years suspended and two that could be served under house arrest). Despite her claims of being persecuted for misusing public funds, her situation is not entirely unique. Former President Jacques Chirac and former Prime Minister Alain Juppé were both convicted in similar cases, while former President Nicolas Sarkozy has also been charged with corruption and influence-peddling. Furthermore, due to recent legislation in France, courts have increasingly barred politicians convicted of corruption from seeking office. Like anyone else, Le Pen has the right to appeal.
The RN’s outburst, with Le Pen leaving before the complete verdict was announced, is ironic considering the party often portrays itself as tough on crime. Many observers in France have pointed out the hypocrisy, recalling that Le Pen herself advocated for a lifetime ban from office for any politician found guilty of misusing public funds back in 2014.
More broadly, those who criticize the verdict should consider whether allowing political corruption to go unpunished is a sign of a healthy democracy, or whether elected officials should be held accountable when convicted of breaking the law.
The political consequences of Le Pen’s conviction will unfold in the coming months. However, it seems reasonable to state the obvious at this point: Le Pen’s conviction does not necessarily diminish her party’s chances of winning the next presidential election.
While Le Pen’s admirers from the MAGA movement might see her as the French equivalent of Donald Trump, this perspective misunderstands the basis of the RN’s popularity. The party’s strength is rooted less in a personality cult around its leader and more in the increasing appeal of its platform. It stems from long-term ideological gains that will not simply disappear with her absence.
The snap legislative elections of the previous year clearly illustrated the RN’s ability to thrive even without Le Pen. Her name appeared only once on the ballot, in her own parliamentary district in northern France, but that did not stop millions of voters across the country from supporting the RN’s anti-establishment, anti-immigrant message. Recent opinion polls have revealed the party’s widespread support, encompassing both disillusioned working-class voters and increasingly radical upper-middle-class conservatives who are abandoning the mainstream right.
The RN’s growing mainstream success also benefits from an increasingly favorable media landscape. Following Rupert Murdoch’s model, billionaire Vincent Bolloré has constructed a powerful media empire that promotes a hard-right agenda. His holdings, which include the newspaper *CNews*, the radio network *Europe 1*, and the TV channel *CNews* (now France’s leading 24-hour news network), consistently produce right-wing content, with excessive coverage of crime, immigration, and Islam. Unsurprisingly, journalists, commentators, and hosts at Bolloré-owned outlets quickly condemned the verdict.
Similar to the Republican Party in the United States, the French RN also benefits from the weaknesses of its rivals. Politicians associated with President Emmanuel Macron will face a difficult challenge in overcoming his largely unpopular legacy, as well as the lingering effects of pension reforms. Under Macron’s leadership, French authorities have failed to address voter concerns about the rising cost of living or to meet public expectations for state services. His top-down management style has further complicated matters.
Furthermore, despite uniting last summer to secure more seats in the National Assembly than any other coalition, France’s left-wing parties are once again divided by minor disagreements and conflicting strategies regarding the next presidential election. These divisions were even apparent in their reactions to Le Pen’s conviction. While leaders of the Socialist Party, the Greens, and the Communist Party all welcomed the ruling, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the left-populist *La France Insoumise* expressed reservations about the principle of courts preventing politicians from running for office.
Of course, the RN has another significant advantage. If Le Pen exhausts all appeals and is ultimately unable to run for president in 2027, the party already has a clear successor in Jordan Bardella. He has been groomed for leadership, and the 29-year-old president of the party already enjoys support from the RN base. In fact, the absence of the controversial Le Pen family name could be an advantage with the broader French electorate. While Bardella may lack experience, expertise, and a deep understanding of complex issues, these shortcomings may not be significant drawbacks in the current political climate.
Ultimately, the RN will still need to be defeated politically, with or without Le Pen. This will not be an easy task for its opponents. However, the RN’s criticism of the verdict, and the support it has received from figures like Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, all of whom have defended the RN, serves as a reminder of what is at stake in France. Like these figures, the party shares a deep distrust of the rule of law, and a healthy democratic society should be able to reject it at the polls.