Concerns are rising about the country’s capacity to accurately predict severe weather events like hurricanes and tornadoes, which have grown more frequent recently, after the Trump Administration initiated layoffs of probationary employees at NOAA, the federal agency responsible for weather forecasting and climate research.
These layoffs are occurring at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which includes the National Weather Service and a large monitoring network that provides free data to commercial forecasters. This action is part of the Trump Administration’s wider plan to decrease the federal workforce and cut government expenses, affecting almost all federal agencies.
According to Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington, the top Democrat on the Senate Committee that oversees NOAA, at least 880 employees were let go on Thursday. The dismissed probationary employees—those with short tenures who lack the protections given to longer-term staff—received an email on Thursday stating that “[T]he Agency finds that you are not fit for continued employment because your ability, knowledge and/or skills do not fit the Agency’s current needs.”
Experts and lawmakers have expressed outrage over the firings, which are expected to continue in the coming days, warning that they could seriously impair NOAA’s ability to respond to increasingly severe weather. The National Weather Service, a crucial part of NOAA, is essential for issuing warnings and forecasts for dangerous storms, including hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires. The loss of skilled personnel at the agency is considered a major setback to the nation’s preparedness, especially as climate change leads to more frequent and intense weather events.
Weathercaster Al Roker stated, “Going into the severe weather and hurricane season, this cannot be good,” adding that the agency’s responsibilities extend beyond just forecasts. “It’s fire weather. It’s severe weather outlooks. It’s climate. It’s information that our FARMERS use day in and day out making us the breadbasket of the world. This agency monitors our oceans, our fisheries health.”
Sources familiar with the situation report that some of those laid off held specialized positions, including meteorologists, data scientists, and engineers who maintain NOAA’s satellite and radar systems, which supply real-time data to forecasters.
The firings appear to be connected to “Project 2025,” a conservative policy framework that has influenced the Trump Administration’s approach to government operations. This framework advocates for reducing the scope of agencies like NOAA, citing concerns about spending and what it considers “climate change alarmism.” Project 2025 suggests limiting the National Weather Service’s role and proposes commercializing weather data instead of providing it free to the public, a significant shift from the agency’s long-standing goal of ensuring that life-saving forecasts and warnings are accessible to everyone. Trump, who has a history of dismissing climate change, has not yet detailed his plans for NOAA or the Weather Service.
Here’s what you should know about the layoffs at NOAA.
What does the NOAA do?
Established in 1970, the agency is perhaps most recognized for managing the National Weather Service and operating some of the world’s most sophisticated weather prediction and monitoring systems, which track temperature changes, tornadoes, and hurricanes. NOAA also contributes significantly to scientific research, providing vital data for studies on climate change, marine ecosystems, and ocean health.
The agency includes the National Marine Fisheries Service, the National Ocean Service, the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, and the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, and NOAA Corps. For example, the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations manages a fleet of scientific and survey ships and airplanes that gather crucial data for climate, weather, fisheries, and underwater mapping.
NOAA’s official mission is “to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, ocean, and coasts, to share that knowledge and information with others, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.” Its research and data are essential not only for meteorologists but also for industries that depend on precise forecasting, such as agriculture, fisheries, transportation, and energy.
What impact could the layoffs have on weather and climate research?
The firings occur as the U.S. anticipates a potentially severe season of extreme weather, including hurricanes, wildfires, and severe storms, which have increased in frequency and intensity in recent years. Experts are concerned that NOAA’s ability to deliver accurate and timely forecasts could be severely affected with fewer personnel to monitor and predict these events.
Meteorologist Jim Cantore stated, “This is deeply troubling. NWS forecasters don’t just come in and put a forecast together. They make processes for all forecasters so much better.”
A staff reduction at the National Weather Service, which relies on a highly skilled workforce, could result in fewer meteorologists available to track storms, launch weather balloons for atmospheric data, and issue critical alerts, especially during peak weather seasons. For instance, NOAA used satellite data from the devastating California wildfires in January to help inform decisions on the ground.
NOAA’s research capabilities could also be negatively impacted. The agency is a leader in climate science, studying ocean health and atmospheric conditions. Layoffs affecting scientists and engineers who work on data collection systems like satellites and radar could disrupt NOAA’s ability to monitor long-term environmental changes and conduct cutting-edge research.