PR in the Philippines

(AsiaGameHub) –   A recent intervention by the National Monetary Council (CMN) has hindered the growth of prediction market platforms in Brazil.

The body responsible for the nation’s monetary policy and financial markets has ruled that derivatives must not be connected to events in sports, politics, or entertainment.

Authorized by Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) President Gabriel Galípolo, Resolution No. 5,298 implements this ruling starting on 4 May.

Financial institutions are prohibited from creating or providing contracts associated with political, electoral, social, cultural, or entertainment occurrences under this new policy.

This move by the CMN supports the safeguards established in the Bets Law (Law No. 14.790/2023), the federal legislation for online betting and sports gambling that took effect on 1 January 2025.

The CMN stated in its announcement that this ruling “comes amid the popularisation of prediction market platforms in Brazil, which operate without their own regulation, unlike the betting sector.”

Focus is now shifting to the US prediction market operator Kalshi, which gained entry to the Brazilian market in January through a collaboration with XP Inc., marketing its platform as an investment vehicle for local users.

During the launch, it was reported that the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) had been approached by numerous licensed operators filing complaints, calling for regulatory action to prevent Kalshi from entering the market.

This launch in Brazil represented Kalshi’s initial foray into international markets. The firm was co-established by Luana Lopes Lara (COO), who became the youngest self-made female billionaire in 2025.

Kalshi recently closed a $1bn funding round in the US, bringing its total valuation to $22bn. As of April 2026, the company’s aggregate venture capital funding has surpassed $2.5bn.

The sharp increase in Kalshi’s valuation has fueled comparisons with major US-listed gambling entities like Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings, as investors evaluate the potential of prediction markets relative to conventional sports betting.

Even with this obstacle, a regulatory void persists for Kalshi and similar entities. The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) is currently observing the industry, yet a specific regulatory schedule for prediction markets has not been defined.

As the CMN clamps down on derivatives based on events, the opportunity for prediction markets to function within Brazil’s regulatory grey area seems to be narrowing. Kalshi’s arrival has highlighted a regulatory discrepancy, as officials work to bridge the divide between financial markets and the existing Bets Law Law framework, which President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva plans to overhaul in 2026.

Last week, Lula announced to the national press that he intends to issue a ‘Presidential Decree‘ in May to establish a fresh online gambling system in Brazil, barring individuals receiving financial aid or those in debt from taking part.