Spain and Indonesia Add to List of Banning Prediction Markets as Unlicensed Gambling

(AsiaGameHub) –   Spain and Indonesia have declared prediction markets as gambling, banning leading platforms from operating in the countries.

In Indonesia, the country has banned Polymarket, while Spain has blocked access to both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Spain’s Ministry of Consumer Affairs issued an order on Tuesday to block the websites, which it says offer gambling services without a valid license. The block is to be executed within the next seven to ten days.

Indonesia Objects To Polymarket’s Political Markets

Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Technology announced on Monday it had blocked Polymarket. It claims Polymarket is operating a gambling site disguised as a prediction market.

“The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” said ministry spokesperson Alexander Sabar in a press release. “Activities like Polymarket involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, thus violating Indonesian law.”

The action follows Polymarket offering users the chance to wager on the early resignation of the country’s president, Prabowo Subianto.

The market has not seen significant trading activity, and the likelihood of Subianto leaving his position this year remains low. A similar market on Iran’s leader, Ali Khamenei, to leave his post sparked major controversy when the Ayatollah was killed in military strikes earlier this year.

Indonesia referenced other countries that have recently blocked access to Polymarket, including Singapore, Brazil, and India. In addition, it noted that other Asian countries, such as Taiwan, Thailand, China, and Japan, have implemented restrictions.

Subianto has led a crackdown on illegal gambling in Indonesia since taking office in 2024. At that time, Indonesians wagered an estimated $24 billion a year illegally. That figure dropped to around $18 billion last year after the government froze over 30,000 bank accounts linked to illicit gambling.

Platforms Seek International Approval

Polymarket’s international platform has been restricted in 33 different countries, including the US. It is in the process of rolling out its US platform after being granted a license by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last year.

A company spokesperson told CasinoBeats via email that it would welcome the opportunity to work constructively with Indonesian authorities.

“Polymarket is committed to engaging constructively with relevant authorities in every jurisdiction,” the spokesperson said. “We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with Indonesia on a path forward that supports responsible innovation, transparency, and user protection in prediction markets.”

The company is also said to be seeking entry into the Japanese market. It recently appointed a representative in Japan and is preparing to lobby for the authorization of prediction markets in the country, Bloomberg reported.

Sources said Polymarket sees Japan as a large, untapped business opportunity and wants to launch in the country by 2030, although it has not officially made its plans public. Like Indonesia, Japan has very limited legal gambling, with online sports betting and casinos illegal.

Spain Joins Brazil In Banning Kalshi

Polymarket has primarily operated internationally since being outlawed in the US in 2022. Kalshi, however, has predominantly focused on the US market under CFTC regulation.

The company attempted its first official international launch in Brazil earlier this year, partnering with XP, one of the country’s largest brokerage firms.

However, a month after announcing the deal, Brazil blocked access to the site.

“This product that was being presented as a security  carried the potentially very destructive features of gambling,” said Minister Regis Dudena, the former head of the country’s gambling regulator.