Bookies Corner: Reflecting on a Memorable (or Forgettable) Premier League Season

(AsiaGameHub) –   The 2025/26 Premier League season provided ample discussion points, extending beyond Arsenal‘s first title in two decades and Tottenham Hotspur‘s fight against relegation – a point we acknowledge with sympathy for Spurs supporters.

For bookmakers, the season unfolded as the typical nine-month period of intense trading, with bettors consistently testing their luck on both weekly matches and season-long outcomes.

With the final weekend now concluded, we are building on last week’s “Bookies Corner” by offering further insights into the recently concluded season. These insights come from contributions by bet365 Sports and Trading Expert, Steve Freeth; Flutter Entertainment‘s Senior PR Executive, James Mackie; Paddy Power‘s PR Manager, Rhys Turrell; and Betway‘s PR Manager, Lewis Knowles.

Arsenal delivered one of their strongest league campaigns in years. Was this level of performance anticipated by bettors for the Gunners in 2025/26?

Steve Freeth, bet365: While many bettors maintained their belief in Arsenal following three previous near misses, their past performances carried a degree of doubt, akin to a ‘timeform squiggle’ in horse racing – suggesting unreliability. The betting market showed stronger support for other clubs; Liverpool, for instance, were heavily backed pre-season to secure consecutive titles, as were Chelsea after their Club World Cup victory. Surprisingly, Manchester United emerged as the best-backed team, having opened at odds of 66/1. This triumph for Arsenal will undoubtedly challenge the “bottler” reputation they’ve faced, particularly after finally securing the trophy after a 22-year wait. Consequently, they are now the clear 6/4 favourites to win it again next season.

Regarding player markets, did most bettors favour Haaland for the Golden Boot this year, or were there any unexpected contenders that stood out in trading?

Rhys Turrell, Paddy Power: Erling Haaland was always a prominent figure in the Golden Boot market due to his prolific scoring record, yet he was not the most frequently backed player by bet volume. Liverpool’s British-record signing, Alexander Isak, led this market, with Arsenal’s new striker, Viktor Gyökeres, also attracting a significant number of wagers.

Lewis Knowles, Betway: The majority of pre-season and early-season activity focused on Haaland; he represented the largest liability by a considerable margin, despite his relatively restrictive odds. A few fortunate bettors placed speculative each-way bets on Igor Thiago. Early season bets on Isak and Gyokeres, both highly popular, did not yield the expected results.

James Mackie, Flutter: On the Betfair Exchange, Erling Haaland was priced at 7/5 to be the top scorer this year, a notable shift from previous years where he was odds-on. He was assigned a 41% probability of securing his third Golden Boot in four seasons. The other primary contenders were Mo Salah at 21%, Alexander Isak at 17%, and Viktor Gyokeres at 14%. On the Betfair Sportsbook, some bettors placed bets on Igor Thiago at 275/1 for the Golden Boot during the pre-season. He reached a low of 9/2 on April 15th. On the Betfair Exchange, he was matched at a high of 599/1.

Who were the surprise packages this year? Did any bettors anticipate an unexpected team to emulate Leicester City’s feat?

Steve Freeth, bet365: The phrase ‘You’re only ever three feet away from somebody who has backed Sunderland +52 on the handicap’ was a common sentiment I expressed throughout the season, as the Black Cats were a popular choice before the season even began. They attracted more money for winning the Premier League than Aston Villa, ranking as the ninth most backed team in the summer. While newly promoted teams had struggled in recent campaigns, Sunderland’s summer recruitment, including the signing of Granit Xhaka, saw their odds for a top-half finish shorten from 33/1 to 16/1 by early August.

Rhys Turrell, Paddy Power: As anticipated, Manchester City, who began the season as second favourites for the title behind Liverpool, garnered the most interest in the outright market. Manchester United attracted the second-highest number of bets. Interestingly, more bettors backed Aston Villa than Arsenal. Sunderland was another notable name, attracting the tenth-highest number of bets in the outright winner market, a strong performance for a newly promoted side. Sunderland started the season at 1000/1 but still received numerous optimistic bets throughout the campaign, suggesting many punters hoped they might replicate Leicester City’s success.

Did Sunderland’s impressive form, particularly at the start of the season, result in payouts for some, or did it derail more accumulator bets?

Steve Freeth, bet365: Despite their solid start, their underlying performance data was not particularly strong, and they were still available at significant odds. For example, they were priced at 21/10 at home against Brentford, 4/1 away at Forest, and notably, 12/5 at home against Newcastle, as they continued to defy market expectations.

What about the bottom three at the season’s conclusion? Were the newly promoted sides expected to be relegated, or were there any unexpected teams in that position?

James Mackie, Flutter: Yes, bettors considered the promoted clubs to be the three most likely teams for relegation this season. According to the odds on the Betfair Exchange, Burnley had a 74% chance, Sunderland 68%, and Leeds 38% of being relegated. Interestingly, Manchester City’s chances of relegation reached 25% this season, amidst ongoing speculation surrounding financial charges throughout the campaign.

Is the pricing of Premier League matches becoming increasingly one-sided, with consistent struggles for certain clubs while the traditional ‘Big Six’ and their peers typically dominate?

Steve Freeth, bet365: I would argue the opposite; the gap has narrowed over the years. The mid-tier teams are now closer to the traditional ‘Big Six’ than they were a decade ago. For instance, a motivated and relatively in-form Manchester United was priced at 8/11 at home against Leeds last month – a few years ago, the Red Devils would have been considerably shorter. The availability of performance metrics has benefited both sides, and in reality, the ‘Big Six’ have not held a dominant position in terms of match ratings for several years.

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