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(AsiaGameHub) –   The Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), France’s gambling regulator, has introduced a new algorithm to estimate problem gambling activity nationwide – with early results raising significant concerns.

Initial findings show that players classified as high-risk account for 60% of total operator gross gaming revenue (GGR), a proportion the ANJ labelled “concerning.”

The regulator has highlighted a dual rising trend: both the number of problem gamblers and their share of operator revenues are increasing.

According to the ANJ, the algorithm detected around 600,000 individuals with a high likelihood of excessive gambling during the second half of 2025.

This figure represents 8.7% of the total online account-based gambling population across licensed operators, including those holding accounts with FDJ United and Pari-Mutuel Urbain (PMU)—two of France’s largest gambling operators.

Of these 600,000 players, approximately 300,000 were deemed “manifestly excessive” gamblers, whose identification by operators the ANJ considers essential.

The regulator also disclosed that these high-risk players contributed roughly €1.2bn (£1.03bn) in GGR, making up 60% of total online gambling revenue. The ANJ noted this share has been steadily climbing since 2023.

In light of these findings, the ANJ concluded that operators’ current measures to detect and assist excessive gamblers remain inadequate.

World Cup concern?

The regulator is also preparing for potential challenges ahead of this summer’s 2026 FIFA World Cup—an event for which it has already cautioned gambling firms against deploying overly aggressive marketing tactics.

Adding to these concerns, a 2024 French study found that 15.3% of sports bettors are currently classified as problem gamblers.

The new algorithm is a key component of the ANJ’s 2024–2026 strategic plan, which prioritises reducing excessive and pathological gambling as a core objective of French gambling regulation.

Under French law, operators must identify and support problem gamblers through actions such as direct player interventions, setting gambling limits, monitoring accounts, referring users to support services, and, where necessary, closing accounts.

Efforts in this area have intensified recently, including the launch of a redesigned national self-exclusion register aimed at mitigating gambling-related harm.

While the ANJ recognised some progress in operator performance—with the number of identified excessive gamblers rising from 31,000 in 2024 to 89,000 in 2025—it stressed that these numbers remain far below expectations, given the size of the player base and existing prevalence data.

To address this gap, the ANJ developed the algorithm using continuous player account data provided by licensed operators, combined with scientific research on gambling behaviour.

ANJ’s algorithm to categorise players

The system assesses players based on 23 indicators and risk factors related to financial activity, gambling frequency, use of moderation tools, and player history. Using these criteria, players are grouped into four categories:

• recreational players
• moderate-risk players
• excessive players
• manifestly excessive players

The ANJ stated that the algorithm’s accuracy was validated against the Canadian Problem Gambling Index, under the oversight of a scientific committee composed of leading researchers.

Although comparable initiatives are under development in countries such as Spain and the Netherlands, the ANJ said its model is currently the only operational tool of its kind in Europe.

Operators may use the algorithm voluntarily in conjunction with their own internal monitoring systems. However, the ANJ made clear it expects swift improvements in detection capabilities, especially concerning the 300,000 players identified as manifestly excessive.

Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin, President of the ANJ, said: “The completion of this algorithm and its release to operators marks a pivotal moment for the regulator. It showcases our capacity to create an innovative and effective tool designed to accurately reflect real-world online gambling behaviours.

“In addition to existing surveys, the algorithm enables a more objective evaluation of operators’ efforts to identify problem gamblers—efforts that must continue without delay.

“It is also crucial that this identification process extends to physical points of sale, a goal we have consistently urged the two monopolies to pursue since 2024.”