This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up to get stories like this sent to your inbox.
It happened without much notice, but Democrats have managed to close the gap with voters on who they trust to handle the economy after a decade of lagging behind. With just a week left before Election Day, Republicans’ advantage on this key issue has shrunk as Kamala Harris takes the lead.
It’s important to note that Democrats haven’t completely overtaken Republicans on the economy. Republicans, led by former President Donald Trump, still hold an edge, largely because they are perceived as the party more supportive of free markets. However, over the past few years, the gap has been slowly narrowing, and this trend accelerated after Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee in July. Some Democratic moderates who favor Wall Street are quietly pleased, seeing this as a sign that the progressive wave that gained momentum during Bernie Sanders’ rise and the social changes of 2020 has subsided.
The extent to which Democrats have made progress on this crucial issue varies depending on which polls you look at. The New York Times/Siena College poll last week showed Trump ahead on the economy with 52% to 45%, a margin that is outside the poll’s margin of error. However, Democrats point out that this is a tighter gap than the 54%-41% split found in the Times’ September survey. And it’s a significant improvement from May, when the same pollsters found Trump leading Joe Biden 58% to 36% on this issue.
But Harris’ gains may be even more significant in the states where she needs them most. Shortly after Biden withdrew from the race, center-left pollsters Redfield and Wilton found Trump leading Harris on the economy in the seven key swing states, with Trump ahead by anywhere from six points in Michigan to 13 points in Pennsylvania. Now, however, these pollsters find Harris favored on the economy in three of those states and tied in another two. It’s worth noting that these advantages in the slightly Democratic-leaning polls range from 4 points up in Wisconsin, 1 point up in Georgia and Nevada, and tied in Michigan and North Carolina—all within the margin of error. But in states like Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, this represents a double-digit swing in her favor.
It’s not a guaranteed win, but this shift has given some strategists on the left a sense of optimism that Democrats have at least closed the trust gap on the economy, which is expected to be the top issue for voters.
“For years, Democrats have struggled to find a way to communicate their economic message even when the economy improved under Biden, especially against a businessman who is a television personality,” says one experienced strategist working with liberal groups this election cycle. “Democrats have been trying to figure this out for 10 years, and nothing has worked until now.”
This optimism is not without merit.
However, it’s important to acknowledge that this is not the most favorable position Democrats have found themselves in on the economy against Trump. When the Times asked voters about Trump and Biden’s handling of the economy in October 2020, they found the sentiment was essentially dead even at 47%-48% in Trump’s favor. Strategists from both parties argue that 2020 should be considered an outlier, a complete anomaly of a campaign season due to the ongoing pandemic. Assuming 2020 is unique, let’s look back at 2016 when Trump faced off against Hillary Clinton. In that race, Trump had a 10-point advantage over Clinton among voters who ranked the economy as their top issue. Harris is doing better than that, but not by much depending on the poll you’re looking at.
While these shifts are small, it’s important to understand why there’s no celebration in Harris’ camp, especially considering that many voters seem unconcerned with the economic realities under the Biden-Harris administration. All signs point toward a strong economy in the foreseeable future. Unemployment is low, interest rates are expected to decline, and consumer spending is stable. Federal officials announced on Wednesday that gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew at a solid 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter. Nevertheless, voters are feeling the pinch of inflation, and Trump has made the higher costs of everyday living one of the most persuasive and factually accurate points of his campaign rhetoric.
Given this inflation-driven skepticism, it’s remarkable to see Democrats nearly reaching competitive parity on this issue, which far surpasses all other issues in importance; a Times poll found that you would have to combine abortion and immigration to reach the level of interest in the economy. Arguments for the shift toward Harris are varied. Biden’s departure ended the so-called “lesser of two evils” dynamic that alienated voters on the Democratic Party’s left flank, giving Harris some space free from criticism. Harris’ economic promises seem grounded in capitalism and less pandering than some of Biden’s efforts to appeal to the progressive movement. Harris represents a newer generation of politicians, someone who hasn’t been in the public eye to the point of saturation or bound to decades of promises. While Biden spoke in terms of fairness and equity, Harris is proposing concrete programs designed to make life easier for everyone at every stage. Among establishment-minded Republicans leaning toward Harris, a steady hand—even one that would raise taxes on the wealthy—is preferred to an erratic president who has proven inconsistent and unpredictable.
Perhaps the biggest factor is that the frustration with Biden’s handling of the economy did not transfer to her; an NPR poll from August found that Trump still had the edge over Harris on the economy, 51%-48%, but this was a significant improvement compared to Biden’s deficit at 54%-45% before he dropped out.
The answer is likely a combination of all these factors. If the numbers are to be believed, it seems Democrats have shed some of the baggage they carried for so long with voters. All it took was a complete change in the face of the party—and a departure from the stench of Bidenomics.
Make sense of what matters in Washington. .