(SeaPRwire) – Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival has always depended on counting votes. This time, the arithmetic is ugly. His bloc holds 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The opposition alliance, led by Gadi Eisenkot, has 48. The 19 seats controlled by the predominantly Arab Joint List and Ra’am are the only reason anyone can dream of 61. Netanyahu knows this. On Monday, he posted to X that the public does not want a government dependent on parties supporting terrorism. It was a threat dressed as a plea. The irony is that the parties he demonizes now hold the keys to his fate.
President Isaac Herzog begins consultations on Wednesday with leaders of every party elected to the 26th Knesset. The order is fixed by seat count. Religious Zionism-Zehut and Shas each have six. Yisrael Beiteinu, United Torah Judaism, and Otzma Yehudit each hold seven. The Democrats and Ra’am have eight each. The Joint List has eleven. BeYachad holds twelve. Yashar controls twenty-one. Likud, Netanyahu’s party, is the largest with twenty-seven. The consultations will produce one name tasked with forming a government. That lawmaker gets 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension from the president.
Three parties have already declared their hand. Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit, and Shas told Digital on Tuesday night they will recommend Netanyahu. The Joint List is likely to endorse Eisenkot. If Ra’am follows, Eisenkot would receive recommendations from parties representing more than 61 seats. That does not mean he can form a government. The mandate is not a coalition. Oren, a defense and government affairs commentator, said Herzog would be inclined to pick the candidate backed by a majority. He expects Eisenkot to get the nod first. But assembling 61 seats requires more than recommendations.
Here is the contradiction that could break Eisenkot. BeYachad leader Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beiteinu chief Avigdor Liberman are unlikely to accept a government dependent on the Joint List. The list’s pro-Palestinian positions and opposition to Zionism are non-negotiable for them. A minority government with Arab parties supporting from outside is theoretically possible. Israel has never done this immediately after an election, but it has happened mid-term. Most recently, an ultra-Orthodox party left Netanyahu’s coalition over conscription but kept supporting him from outside. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, says the Bennett-Liberman endorsements signal a shift away from national unity.
Former Knesset member Dov Lipman sketches the likely sequence. Eisenkot approaches Likud, asks it to join under his leadership. Likud refuses. Liberman won’t sit with Arab parties. Eisenkot fails. The mandate passes to Netanyahu. He fails too. That triggers a 21-day window where any lawmaker can try with 61 signatures. Lipman suggests Eisenkot might agree to serve under Netanyahu for two years to avoid another election. Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, points to 1984-1988 as precedent. Shimon Peres served first, Yitzhak Shamir second. But the conditions are brutal. Freeze the judicial overhaul. Investigate Oct. 7. Agree on how Netanyahu leaves.
The 26th Knesset is sworn in Nov. 10, and the 19 seats Netanyahu swore off will decide who rules.