PR in the Philippines

(SeaPRwire) –   The seemingly collapse of high-stakes U.S.-Iran negotiations has heightened fears that senior leaders within Tehran’s ruling establishment could flee to Russia to seek shelter, with the aim of “continuing their insurgency and undermining any new Iranian regime,” an analyst warns.

The breakdown of the talks comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS’ “60 Minutes” that overthrowing Iran’s ruling regime could now even be a feasible outcome.

Netanyahu pointed out that any such collapse would dismantle the “scaffolding” of Tehran’s global network of terrorist proxies, potentially ending Hezbollah’s regional influence as well.

“The entire framework of the terrorist proxy network that Iran has built will crumble if the Iranian regime falls,” Netanyahu stated.

“I believe no one can predict when that will occur. Is it a possibility? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No,” he cautioned.

With diplomatic options likely exhausted and the regime’s stability in doubt, one expert has posited that any exit strategy the ruling leadership might be considering could mirror that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Syria in 2024.

“If the situation deteriorates further, some senior figures could potentially follow a similar path to Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle and seek refuge in Russia,” Middle East expert Saeid Golkar told Digital.

Golkar, a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran, noted that escape destinations would likely depend on a leader’s rank.

While top officials such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf might travel to Moscow, lower-ranking figures would be more likely to seek shelter in Iraq or Afghanistan, where the IRGC maintains operational ties, he clarified.

“For the most senior leaders, Russia would probably be the most likely destination, just as we saw with Bashar al-Assad,” Golkar said, noting that many officials have already transferred their assets into “financial networks outside Iran.”

The ongoing crisis began following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026, at the onset of Operation Epic Fury.

While his son Mojtaba Khamenei was named as his successor, ongoing reports indicate he sustained severe injuries during the strikes and has been absent from recent negotiations.

Golkar explained that the “invisible state,” or Bayt-e Rahbari, was designed to withstand decapitation, while the ideological cost of fleeing the country would be high for ruling leaders.

“Within the regime’s ideological culture, leaving the nation during a collapse would be viewed as desertion,” Golkar noted.

However, as military fractures deepen and succession remains unclear, the “Assad model” of seeking Russian protection appears increasingly appealing to those in the top ranks of power.

“Mojtaba, however, is ‘either dead or in very poor health, which is why he cannot send any video or voice message,'” Golkar added.

“If he died from his injuries, there was no clear natural successor. He was the continuation of the regime.”

“Still, the system was built to ensure continuity during a crisis,” Golkar said, adding that its goal is to “make sure the regime can survive even if formal institutions are damaged, leaders are killed, or the civilian government stops functioning.”

“I would characterize this as a regime designed not just to govern, but always to strive to survive decapitation,” Golkar added.