KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan: On Christmas Eve and again two weeks later, satellite and ship-tracking data detected an unusual phenomenon in the East China Sea: thousands of Chinese fishing boats gathering in dense, linear formations and remaining stationary for long durations.
Geospatial analysts identified two massive clusters consisting of roughly 1,400 and 2,000 vessels. Commercial cargo ships were forced to alter their routes or navigate carefully through these stationary fleets, which had stopped normal fishing activities. Experts believe this behavior represents a “gray zone” tactical exercise.
“U.S. defense specialists have suggested that the American Navy should view China’s maritime militia as a legitimate naval force,” Holmes Liao, a senior advisor to the Taiwan Space Agency (TASA), told Digital.
“Taiwan should perhaps adopt that same perspective,” Liao remarked. “If these vessels are operating under direct military command, their legal status during armed conflict could be reevaluated, which might impact their claims to civilian immunity.”
Liao argued that Taiwan should deploy air patrols or surveillance drones over these formations to project presence and strengthen deterrence. “Taiwan has been quite cautious in responding to PRC provocations,” Liao said. “While they appear to be fishing boats, they are actually part of the maritime militia under PLA control.”
The U.S. Department of Defense has frequently described the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) in its annual reports as a state-organized and equipped force that provides active support to China’s coast guard and navy.
While researchers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies have previously tracked swarms of Chinese vessels near contested reefs in the South China Sea, these recent incidents suggest the scale of this fishing militia is growing significantly.
Fishing boats are numerous, inexpensive, and legally difficult to categorize. When deployed in large numbers, they interfere with navigation, create radar interference, and increase risks for commercial vessels. Their civilian status also allows Beijing to dismiss any confrontations as accidental or unauthorized actions.
The United States often conducts navy patrols in the Indo-Pacific to ensure freedom of navigation, noting that the region generates 60% of the world’s GDP. Because the waters around Taiwan are already classified as high-risk by shipping insurers, even temporary flotilla formations could disrupt shipping routes and impact the global economy.
However, Taipei-based analyst Sasha Chhabra highlighted the risks China faces by using civilian boats in a conflict. “A U.S. Navy convoy could easily bypass these lines, and the massive commercial ships carrying Taiwan’s essential imports would likely destroy fishing vessels in any ramming incident.”
He pointed out that Beijing has a history of using fishermen as “live bait,” such as during the 1973 seizure of the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam. “While that tactic worked against a struggling South Vietnam in 1973, it would not be effective against the U.S. Navy,” Chhabra noted.
For Taiwan, the concern is the steady buildup of pressure rather than a single event. Coordinated groups of Chinese fishing boats are increasingly shadowing or crowding Taiwanese patrol vessels near outlying islands. This militia could also serve as a means to intimidate the international shipping industry from conducting business with Taiwan.
Taiwan’s primary ports, such as Kaohsiung, are vital for the island’s energy and industrial needs. Any disruption or perceived instability in these maritime corridors could have a ripple effect on global supply chains and significantly increase costs for the world economy.
Jason Wang, CEO of ingeniSPACE, the firm that identified the fleets via satellite, noted that China is currently leading in the space domain. He emphasized that satellite-based maritime awareness and data fusion are now essential strategic tools. “Intelligence serves as deterrence without being provocative, acting as a force multiplier for the military,” he said, adding that Taiwan must prepare for this evolving form of warfare.
Wang and other specialists pointed out that Japan and South Korea have spent the last decade enhancing their surveillance capabilities with commercial satellites to better distinguish between military operations and gray-zone activities.
Analysts suggest the broader takeaway is that maritime control is no longer the exclusive domain of submarines and destroyers. In the near future, the most significant maritime pressure may come from vessels that appear, at first glance, to be entirely harmless.