Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’ authoritarian leader, was declared the victor of the 2020 presidential election with 80% of the vote, sparking widespread allegations of fraud, sustained protests, and a severe crackdown resulting in numerous arrests.
To prevent a recurrence of such unrest from those opposing his three-decade rule, Lukashenko moved the 2025 election from August to January, a time when street demonstrations are less likely.
With many political opponents imprisoned or exiled, the 70-year-old Lukashenko is seeking a seventh term, a near certainty given he is the only leader most Belarusians have known in the post-Soviet era. The election concludes on Sunday.
Here’s an overview of Belarus, its election, and its relationship with Russia:
‘Europe’s last dictator’ and his reliance on Russia
Belarus, a Slavic nation of 9 million, was part of the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991. Situated between Russia and Ukraine, and bordering Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland (all NATO members), it suffered occupation by Nazi Germany during World War II.
It maintains close ties with Moscow and President Vladimir Putin, who has also been in power for 25 years.
Lukashenko, a former state farm director, was first elected in 1994, capitalizing on public discontent over declining living standards following harsh free-market reforms. He pledged to combat corruption.
Throughout his rule, he has relied on Russian subsidies and political support, permitting the use of Belarusian territory for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequently agreeing to host some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons.
Early in his tenure, Lukashenko was labeled “Europe’s last dictator,” a title he has upheld by suppressing dissent and holding elections deemed neither free nor fair by the West.
A proponent of the Soviet Union, he has reinstated Soviet-style economic controls, discouraged the Belarusian language in favor of Russian, and promoted the replacement of the national flag with a Soviet-era design.
Belarus’s main security agency retains its KGB name, and it’s the only European country retaining capital punishment, executing prisoners with a gunshot to the back of the head.
Flirtation with the West, repression at home
While negotiating with the Kremlin for subsidies, Lukashenko intermittently attempted to appease the West by easing repression. These attempts ceased after the violent suppression of dissent following the 2020 election.
His sixth-term election was widely viewed as rigged, both domestically and internationally, triggering months of large-scale protests, the largest in Belarus’ history.
Authorities responded with a widespread crackdown, arresting over 65,000 people, resulting in thousands of police beatings and the closure of hundreds of independent media outlets and NGOs, leading to Western sanctions.
Prominent opposition figures have been jailed or forced into exile. Human rights organizations report approximately 1,300 political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski, founder of Viasna, Belarus’ leading human rights group.
Lukashenko’s maneuvers before the election
Although Lukashenko’s current term doesn’t end until summer, the election was brought forward, ostensibly to allow for “early strategic planning.”
Belarusian political analyst Valery Karbalevich offered an alternative explanation: “There won’t be mass protests in freezing January.”
Lukashenko has also pardoned 250 individuals identified by human rights activists as political prisoners.
However, these pardons coincide with intensified repression aimed at eliminating any remaining dissent. Hundreds have been arrested in raids targeting relatives and friends of political prisoners, and others involved in online chats among apartment building residents.
Unlike in 2020, Lukashenko faces only minor opposition; other candidates were rejected by the Central Election Commission. Early voting began Tuesday, concluding Sunday.
“The politicians who once dared to challenge Lukashenko are now literally rotting in prison in torture conditions, there has been no contact with them for over a year, and some of them are in very poor health,” stated Viasna representative Pavel Sapelka.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the exiled opposition leader who challenged Lukashenko in 2020 and subsequently fled, calls the election a sham and urges Belarusians to reject all candidates. Her husband, activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski, who attempted to run four years ago, remains imprisoned.
Under Russia’s nuclear umbrella
In December 2024, Lukashenko and Putin signed a treaty providing security guarantees to Belarus, including the potential use of Russian nuclear weapons.
This followed Moscow’s revised nuclear doctrine, which for the first time included Belarus under its nuclear umbrella amidst heightened tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine.
Lukashenko claims Belarus is hosting dozens of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Their deployment expands Russia’s capacity to target Ukraine and NATO allies in Europe.
He also stated that Belarus will prepare to host Russia’s Oreshnik hypersonic missile, first used in Ukraine in November. Putin indicated these missiles could be deployed to Belarus in the latter half of 2025, remaining under Moscow’s control, with Minsk selecting targets.