On Monday, President Donald Trump unveiled his most recent peace proposal, which offered a degree of reassurance to both sides involved in the conflict in Ukraine. Ukrainians found relief in the prospect of receiving a crucial supply of American weaponry, intended to protect civilians from Russian bombardment and replenish their military’s arsenal. Meanwhile, for Russia, the plan provided considerable operational flexibility and was not as punitive as many in Moscow had anticipated.
Specifically, the sole punitive measure outlined in Trump’s initiative involved imposing 100% tariffs on Russia and its trade associates should the Kremlin fail to agree to a ceasefire promptly. However, these tariffs would only take effect following a 50-day period without a peace agreement, granting Russia ample opportunity to pursue its summer offensive in Ukraine. This push aims to seize four regions before the onset of autumn rains complicates further military advances. Should these efforts prove successful, Vladimir Putin could declare victory instead of engaging in negotiations based on Trump’s conditions.
“Putin will not negotiate from a position of defeat,” a long-term associate of his communicated to TIME via phone from Moscow. “He understands that victors are not penalized, and if he prevails, everything” — referring to the sanctions and tariffs — “will cease to apply.”
Even if Russia does not manage to seize the desired territory within the next 50 days, the proposed 100% tariffs are unlikely to deter Putin from continuing his advance into the autumn. Trump’s congressional allies had advocated for the White House to implement tariffs as high as 500% on Russia and nations purchasing its oil. This suggestion, spearheaded by Senator Lindsey Graham, aimed to prevent India and China from funding Russia’s military via oil transactions. While the concept garnered extensive bipartisan backing, a source close to Senate leadership indicated that the White House encouraged lawmakers to delay it last week. “Trump does not wish for it,” the source stated, requesting anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions.
Trump’s preference became evident on Monday when he introduced a diluted iteration of Graham’s proposal. The bill, titled the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, had garnered the backing of over 80 Senators, and Graham had voiced confidence last week regarding its imminent passage. However, on Monday, Trump appeared hesitant about whether the sanctions legislation should proceed to a vote. “I am uncertain if it is necessary,” he remarked.
A palpable sense of relief swept across the Moscow Stock Exchange as traders processed Trump’s most recent warning. On Monday, Russia’s primary stock index rose by 2.7%, and the ruble gained strength against the dollar. Beyond the 50-day reprieve, Russian investors seemed to acknowledge that the White House frequently retracts its tariff threats as often as it issues them. “Trump’s action fell short of market expectations,” commented a financial analyst in Moscow, further stating that the U.S. president “often prefers to defer and prolong such deadlines.”
Furthermore, Trump’s proposal might suffer from a more fundamental flaw—its failure to grasp the extent of Putin’s commitment in Ukraine, and the level of hardship he is prepared to endure to prevent a loss. Three and a half years into the extensive conflict, he has already sacrificed hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, and Trump noted on Monday that over 5,000 continue to perish daily. No current global leader has been subjected to more sanctions and international ostracization than Putin due to the war in Ukraine. The International Criminal Court indicted him for war crimes in 2022, significantly complicating his international travel due to the risk of arrest and extradition to The Hague.
“He is too deeply committed now,” stated Putin’s associate in Moscow. “He cannot concede, and he is far from perceiving himself on the verge of defeat. Conversely, he believes he holds the advantage.”
Even with the slow rate of Russian progress and the immense casualties sustained, Putin’s forces have gradually advanced in recent months toward his aim of seizing all of Ukraine’s eastern territories. It is improbable that anything within the proposal Trump revealed on Monday will compel Putin to abandon this objective.