Japanese politics, traditionally stable, have seen the center-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) govern nearly uninterrupted since 1955. However, the LDP’s hold on power appears to be weakening, as Japan increasingly shows vulnerability to the populist trends observed in most other affluent countries.
Last week, LDP officials convened to deliberate internal matters, coinciding with increasing demands for the incumbent Prime Minister’s resignation. Momentum for his removal escalated after last month’s Upper House elections for the national Diet, where the LDP faced challenges amidst significant gains by Sanseitō, a right-wing “Japanese First” party disseminating conspiracy theories.
Sanseitō is spearheaded by Kamiya Sohei, a 47-year-old provocateur who describes himself as a “mini-Donald Trump.” He has championed an agenda centered on anti-globalization and xenophobia—topics previously unpoliticized in a nation that greatly prospered from the post-war liberal international order and maintains a largely homogenous society.
Saya, a singer-turned-Sanseitō candidate, advocated for mandatory conscription and the development of nuclear weapons—proposals typically anathema in a country deeply affected by the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. She asserted, “Nuclear armament is one of the most inexpensive and effective measures to ensure safety,” before the election. While such statements would have once been political suicide in pacifist Japan, her rallies were well-attended, and party volunteers actively distributed flyers and engaged with the public. Her campaign demonstrated an unparalleled level of grassroots mobilization.
Sanseitō, which emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, secured 7.4 million votes last month, making it the third-highest-polling party—significantly surpassing Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner, which received 5.2 million votes. Despite this, the party garnered a comparatively modest 15 seats in the Upper House and three in the more influential Lower House. This rapid five-year ascent is remarkable and suggests further growth may be anticipated.
This rise is partly attributable to Kamiya’s ability to capitalize on widespread discontent in Japan, particularly among those under 50 who are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs. A significant portion of the workforce remains in precarious, low-wage irregular employment, while wages have stagnated, and inflation has driven up prices due to Japan’s substantial reliance on imports. These conditions have created an environment conducive to blaming foreigners, who now constitute approximately 3% of the population. While this percentage is relatively low for an affluent nation, it has increased considerably over the last decade, coinciding with a record surge in tourism in 2024. This occurs in a society where foreign presence was uncommon until recently.
Against this backdrop, numerous younger Japanese express growing resentment over contributing high taxes to fund pensions and healthcare for the comparatively affluent older generation. This grievance has steered them towards proponents of change rather than the established mainstream parties.
Certainly, traditional parties secured far more seats than this new entrant; however, all political factions are now hurrying to define their stances on immigration, largely in reaction to Sanseitō’s rise.
Within the LDP, some attribute the party’s challenges to Ishiba’s perceived moderation, suggesting it alienated right-wing voters and pushed them towards Sanseitō. Indeed, Sanseitō is an ultra-right party characterized by a stern ethno-nationalism. Nevertheless, a key asset for Sanseitō is Kamiya himself, who effectively connects with voters emotionally and seems to genuinely heed and address their concerns, unlike many other politicians. While some of his supporters may not fully endorse his extensive hard-right platform, they are drawn to his vibrant personality and have found a political home in his burgeoning party.
Concurrently, Sanseitō and Kamiya are facing intensified media examination, and competing parties could easily enhance their own strategies. Earlier this month, a widely shared satirical piece severely ridiculing Sanseitō indicated a potential for curbing its growth.
Furthermore, the LDP has a history of adopting positions from opposition parties. Sanseitō also confronts significant hurdles in establishing and maintaining a national movement, including Kamiya’s unpredictable and authoritarian leadership style. Some party members have voiced apprehension regarding its conspiracy theories and revisionist interpretations of Imperial Japan’s wartime past.
Although the recent populist wave first gained traction in the U.S. and Europe, Japan largely maintained its centrist political stability, which many considered uneventful. However, the phenomenon of populism has now emerged in Japan, marking an irreversible change. A period characterized by increased division and confrontation appears imminent. The previous era of stability now seems far more appealing.