Thailand’s Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has seen her tenure officially conclude, just over a year after its commencement.
The Constitutional Court of the Southeast Asian nation formally dismissed Paetongtarn from her post as Prime Minister. The dismissal follows a controversial phone call she made earlier this year with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, which the court determined breached ethics and integrity rules.
The court stated that Paetongtarn’s criticism of a Thai Army commander during the call “highlighted the fragility of domestic [Thai] politics.” It further noted that she offered a concession to Hun Sen, disregarding Thai “national security,” in an attempt to bolster her own popularity, as reported by a Thai news source.
Swift changes in leadership are common in Thailand. Last year, Paetongtarn’s predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was also removed by the Constitutional Court for an ethics violation, serving less than a year. Paetongtarn’s removal follows this pattern, as she had already been on suspension since July 1, awaiting the Friday verdict in her case.
Paetongtarn’s family is notably accustomed to political removals. Both her father, Thaksin, and her aunt, Yingluck, previously served as Prime Ministers, with their terms prematurely ended in 2006 and 2014, respectively.
According to observers speaking to TIME, with Paetongtarn, dubbed the “” Shinawatra, now no longer in power, the influential political dynasty might never recover its former degree of political sway.
“The Shinawatra brand has already sustained irreparable damage,” Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow from ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, informed TIME. He noted that their party, Pheu Thai, has thus far not fulfilled the populist economic promises made upon taking power two years prior. This failure followed a controversial “” pact to collaborate with the conservative military and monarchy-aligned establishment they had previously opposed, a move aimed at preventing the , the party with the most votes, from establishing a government.
Paetongtarn’s suspension had already triggered a period of uncertainty that is anticipated to lead to new coalition formations and potentially an earlier general election than expected.
Shinawatra’s losing battle for political power
Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, expressed his belief that a Shinawatra “comeback” is “impossible” following the court’s decision against Paetongtarn, citing the family and party’s unfavorable history.
According to a June survey by the National Institute of Development Administration, support for Pheu Thai has declined from 28% to 11%, while Paetongtarn’s approval rating plummeted to single digits.
Titipol stated that the Shinawatras “do not genuinely connect with the nation’s sentiment, as there is a widespread demand not only for economic prosperity but also for liberty and freedom, issues they consistently avoid addressing.”
Napon further commented that the Shinawatra name “lacks its former ideological significance or policy impact. It is now overshadowed by the dispute concerning Paetongtarn’s recent diplomatic error, which has both affirmed conservatives’ enduring doubts about the Shinawatras’ reliability in safeguarding national interests and intensified general public apprehension regarding Paetongtarn’s leadership capabilities, especially during periods of national emergency.”
The Constitutional Court’s judgment on Paetongtarn marked one of three significant legal battles the family confronted. Just last week, a court acquitted Thaksin of a royal defamation charge, an exceptional reprieve for the dynasty considering the usual sentences for such cases. Nevertheless, Titipol posits Thaksin could still encounter trouble in a separate matter. He returned after 15 years in exile when Pheu Thai regained power; despite an eight-year prison sentence, he spent six months in a hospital suite before a royal pardon freed him. The impending verdict, anticipated next month, might lead to his incarceration if he is found not to have completed his time before being paroled.
What comes next
Napon notes that although a Shinawatra may no longer officially lead Thailand’s government, Thaksin continues to wield influence among his Pheu Thai party members. Any prospective government coalition will “most likely” still need Pheu Thai’s backing—given its 141 representatives in the 500-member lower house of Parliament—at least until a new election is held.
Discussions for a fresh coalition government might include Pheu Thai keeping ministerial roles or, potentially, a more lenient stance on Thaksin’s prison enforcement situation.
Napon concludes, “The Shinawatra family will persist as a significant political entity,” though he adds, “its former dominance is now relegated to history.”