With Mali on the verge of becoming the first nation on the continent governed by an al Qaeda–linked terrorist group, a State Department official has advised U.S. citizens against traveling there and urged those present to depart.
Addressing Mali’s situation, the spokesperson told Digital, “Avoid all travel due to crime, terrorism, kidnapping, civil unrest, and health hazards,” while warning, “U.S. citizens should avoid travel, and those currently in Mali should leave right away.”
The U.S. Embassy in Mali also stated on its website that Americans should leave via commercial flights, as road routes to neighboring nations could be unsafe due to militant attacks on major roads.
It further cautioned Americans against traveling beyond the capital, stating, “The U.S. Embassy in Bamako can seldom offer emergency assistance to U.S. citizens outside the capital,” with the advisory remaining current as of Monday.
A former high-ranking military official familiar with the situation informed Digital that developments in Mali have made a threat to the U.S. homeland “more probable than ever.”
JNIM Islamist militants have encircled the capital, Bamako, blocking fuel deliveries and torching some vehicles. The Malian military has attempted to breach the siege with armed escorts for fuel trucks, but JNIM has ambushed several convoys.
Retired Air Force Major General Kenneth P. Ekman told Digital that Mali’s ability to hold back JNIM matters significantly to Washington. Ekman served as the Defense Department’s West Africa Coordination Element lead for U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) in Mali, Niger, and other Sahel nations until his retirement earlier this year.
“The threat in West Africa,” he stated. “A threat of external operations against the American homeland is unacceptable, growing more likely, and much harder to identify due to the limited U.S. military and intelligence presence remaining in the region.”
He added, “This danger also jeopardizes the safety of U.S. diplomats and their families in Bamako, Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), Niamey (Niger), and elsewhere in West Africa.”
The military junta controlling Mali ordered U.S. and French forces to withdraw a year ago, replacing them with the Kremlin’s private military contractors. Mariam Wahba, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Digital that the Russians, seemingly more focused on mining the region’s mineral resources, have not proven “particularly useful.”
Speaking about the danger of the al Qaeda–linked group seizing Mali’s capital, Ekman said, “Both Bamako and Ouagadougou face threats.”
He added, “JNIM appears to be building momentum, with broader goals and stronger determination.”
“Throughout and following the 2024 withdrawal, the U.S. (under the Biden administration) decided against maintaining those forces in the region,” the former major general noted. “Consequently, America lost its capacity to track and counter Sahel terrorist groups’ operations and expansion, aid threatened U.S. embassies, and resolve emergencies like the kidnapping.”
The missionary, who is also a pilot, was abducted in Niger on October 21 and remains missing.
JNIM is designated as both a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) by the State Department.
“The Malian military is battling an irregular, asymmetric foe,” Wahba said, adding, “They’re jihadists, fundamentally, and authorities are struggling to anticipate their moves. If this persists, Bamako could collapse within days or weeks.”
Mali’s conflict with an al Qaeda terrorist organization is on the administration’s threat monitor. Last month, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau traveled to Bamako and wrote on X that he met with the junta’s foreign minister, Abdoulaye Diop, “to discuss our mutual security concerns in the region.”
Caleb Weiss, senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation and editor at FDD’s Long War Journal, told Digital he fears Sharia law will be imposed by terrorists in Mali, saying JNIM, “Al Qaeda’s West African branch, is exerting severe economic and social strain on Bamako, probably hoping the military junta will yield somehow.”
Weiss added, “Bamako’s regime is severely overextended, and its Russian Wagner/Afrika Corps allies are demonstrating ineffectiveness.”
“JNIM is also strengthening its foothold in other parts of Mali, where they’re permitted to implement Sharia law in exchange for lifting blockades, sieges, or halting violence. They may be pursuing the same approach with Bamako. JNIM is highly unlikely to settle for anything less than a Mali ruled by its rigid Sharia interpretation,” he stated.
Ekman suggested the situation might have been otherwise: “Any access and partnerships that other U.S. agencies manage to build in nations like Mali will probably not match what America could have accomplished by repositioning its military assets when withdrawing from Niger.”