As a child, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spent his time playing video games alone in his family palace, as public entertainment was prohibited by Saudi Arabia’s religious police. This imaginative upbringing led him to believe that anything achievable in a video game could also be realized in the real world.
Now, as the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, his ambitions are equally bold: he aims to navigate complex relations between Iran, Israel, and the United States to foster peace and prosperity throughout the Middle East. His nation emerged unscathed from the recent 12-day conflict. Beyond Israel and the U.S., MBS, as he is known, has so far emerged as a clear victor.
However, his success differs significantly from those of Israel and the U.S. due to the varying levels of risk involved. Israel’s very existence was at stake, Iran’s nuclear program faced peril, and the U.S. risked its global standing during the 12-day war. Saudi Arabia, conversely, risked nothing. The Crown Prince strategically positioned himself among the three major players by publicly denouncing Israel’s attacks while privately encouraging President Donald Trump to avoid involvement in the war, despite his clear awareness of Iran’s nuclear and regional threats. In essence, MBS executed a shrewd defensive strategy, resulting in a passive triumph.
Nevertheless, to achieve his true objective—a stable region focused on economic growth rather than solely on Palestinian-Israeli disputes—he will need to assume a more prominent leadership role, openly pursuing his aims instead of privately manipulating all parties. Unlike Trump, MBS does not seek the international spotlight. He once conveyed to me that he was such a shy boy that he declined to participate in a second-grade play because he was simply unable to speak in front of an audience.
Domestically, MBS initiated his period as the kingdom’s de facto ruler by removing religious police from Saudi streets and empowering women to participate in the nation’s economy. He subsequently detained royal relatives and businessmen, and replaced his cousin as crown prince. Today, his control at home is undisputed; he can largely act as he pleases without visible opposition. However, the international arena is considerably more challenging, a domain where no power, even a major one, holds complete sway. Despite this, he must establish greater influence abroad, where his authority is less tested.
No nation has a greater financial incentive for peace in the Middle East than Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince has committed trillions of dollars to ambitious mega-projects designed to reduce the kingdom’s reliance on oil revenues. Protecting these investments from potential destruction by Iran or its proxies is a top priority. Yet, some of these projects face financial difficulties precisely because regional instability has hindered efforts to attract the necessary foreign investment and expertise to realize his numerous grand visions. For example, The Line, a proposed 100-mile long mirrored city, the height of New York’s Empire State Building and managed by AI, is now projected to be only 1.5 miles long by 2030, owing to its immense cost and complexity. This futuristic city is the centerpiece of Neom, a development in northwest Saudi Arabia envisioned as a new high-tech Silicon Valley. However, to fulfill this ambition, the Crown Prince requires Western investment and expertise—and ideally, collaboration with Israel’s advanced technological capabilities.
Foreign investment in the kingdom has been slow to materialize. In 2024, foreign direct investment fell significantly below the $29 billion target and far short of the $100 billion annual goal set for 2030. The conflict in Gaza since October 2023 has likely dampened the willingness of international investors to commit funds to the kingdom. So far, Amazon Web Services, Oracle, and Microsoft have collectively invested roughly in cloud-based technology solutions in Saudi Arabia—a mere fraction of what is needed to achieve MBS’s aspirations. Therefore, the Crown Prince’s objective of regional prosperity necessitates peace.
Significantly boosting foreign investment into the kingdom almost certainly also requires Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. This move could not only reduce regional tensions, making investments safer, but also create a vast land bridge connecting Asia to Europe. This remains a vision of the Saudi Crown Prince, who sees Neom as the ideal hub for this new commercial venture built on Israeli technology and Saudi capital. He was on the verge of recognizing Israel when the Gaza war erupted, putting these relations on hold. With Iran now considerably weakened, Israel firmly established as the region’s military powerhouse, and President Trump continuing to advocate for Saudi-Israeli diplomatic ties, the issue is poised to re-emerge.
Iran has historically complicated Saudi-Israeli relations by exploiting the Israel-Palestine issue as a point of contention. Many Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, support a two-state solution where Israelis and Palestinians coexist in independent states. Iran, however, has championed Israel’s destruction and provided financial support to groups like Hamas. Consequently, Iran’s significant setbacks in the 12-day war may simplify Saudi Arabia’s path toward recognizing Israel.
However, public opinion polls indicate that 96% of Saudis oppose diplomatic ties with Israel. As a result, MBS has reiterated his public commitment not to recognize Israel until “an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital” is established. Consequently, MBS now faces a multitude of complex challenges: How to attract the investment required to create jobs for the increasing number of young Saudis entering the workforce? How to persuade Palestinians to accept a Jewish state? How to persuade Israelis to accept a Palestinian state? And how to respond to Trump’s efforts to end the war in Gaza?
The Crown Prince has skillfully safeguarded Saudi Arabia’s development. He reinstated diplomatic relations with Iran, exchanged intelligence with Israel, forged connections with Russia and China, and committed to investing $600 billion in the U.S. All these seemingly contradictory maneuvers proved beneficial during the 12-day war, sparing Saudi Arabia from direct involvement. However, with Iran significantly weaker and Israel considerably stronger, can he seize this opportunity? To do so, Saudi Arabia must evolve from a passive beneficiary into an active peacemaker.