NATO has maintained a state of heightened alert since the invasion of Ukraine over three and a half years ago. However, a recent surge in airspace violations across the alliance has led security experts to voice increasing concern that warnings of a potential conflict with Moscow are no longer theoretical scenarios but rather an unavoidable prospect.
A prominent leader on Thursday cautioned that the U.S. risked “ending up in World War III” due to Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The leader also acknowledged that Russian President Vladimir Putin had “disappointed him” by his persistent refusal to cease military operations.
The following day, Russia deployed three fighter jets over Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, in a direct and undeniable breach of its airspace. This incident prompted another NATO member to issue an urgent response for the second time in as many weeks.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene informed Digital that “Russia is once again testing NATO— with dozens of drones in Poland last week, drones in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and now fighter jets in Estonian skies. These are deliberate provocations.” She further stated, “They represent calculated tests—evaluations of our readiness, our resolve, and the boundaries of our deterrence capabilities.”
Sakaliene described the Friday violation as the most recent development in “an escalating pattern of Russian pressure.”
She added, “For Estonia, for Poland, for Lithuania, and indeed for NATO’s entire eastern flank, this constitutes a direct threat—not only to territorial integrity but also to the safety of citizens.”
The Lithuanian defense minister stressed that beyond its actual military readiness, NATO’s most crucial line of defense currently involves presenting a unified front. This unity aims to deter Moscow from undertaking direct actions against any NATO member, which could potentially trigger a global war.
“Our greatest current risk stems from potential miscalculation by Russia,” Sakaliene stated. “Does Russia truly believe that NATO will tolerate violations of its territory? Does Russia believe that Europe will not retaliate in concert with the United States?
“This collective resolve now stands as the final defense, determining if and when a war with Russia will occur,” she concluded.
Apprehension regarding direct conflict with Moscow intensified earlier this month after a swarm of at least 19 Russian drones not only traversed Polish airspace but also necessitated a multi-nation response. For the first time since the war’s outset, NATO actively intervened and successfully neutralized as many as four drones that posed a threat.
While a prominent figure suggested that the drone swarm might have been an error, Poland refuted this claim, asserting that the incident was “deliberate” and a “planned provocation.”
Drone strikes have long served as a preferred wartime tactic for Russia in its ongoing operations against Ukraine, with the number of strikes reaching its peak in July, when approximately 6,297 long-range drones were launched across the country.
This figure then dropped during August. However, a notable surge occurred between Aug. 16th and the 31st, during which approximately 3,001 drones were launched, commencing the day after President Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15.
A site in Ukraine, situated less than 30 miles from two other NATO member states, Hungary and Slovakia, also sustained hits from “several” cruise missiles in late August.
“The scale of air attacks from Russia against Ukraine is genuinely increasing. They are deploying more drones and more rockets, and this trend is expected to continue,” Sakaliene observed.
“We must acknowledge and adapt to this evolving reality. A high-intensity war waged by Russia against Ukraine is ongoing,” the defense minister affirmed. “This implies that a growing number of UAVs will inevitably stray into the territories of neighboring countries, and potentially even further.”
Russia has increasingly adopted gray-zone tactics, which encompass incidents that fall below the threshold of open warfare. These tactics enable Russia to gauge NATO’s resolve and its capacity to respond.
Over the past month, Poland experienced three distinct incidents where its airspace was violated, including UAVs carrying explosive components that entered its airspace from both Ukraine and Belarus.
Just three days after the drone swarm overwhelmed Polish air defense systems, a Russian drone breached Romanian airspace. This incident prompted a French fighter jet and a Polish helicopter to respond under NATO’s Operation Eastern Sentry – a defensive posture that the alliance had initiated only one day prior.
These developments followed Romania being compelled to sound an alarm after two separate incidents in which Russian Gerber drones infringed upon its borders, with one of these drones reportedly carrying explosives.
Nevertheless, security experts have recently highlighted that these tactics are not the sole threats emanating from Moscow’s concerning behavior.
Earlier this month, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, D.C., drew attention to an op-ed published on Sept. 8 by former Russian president and current Security Council chair, Dmitry Medvedev, in the state-sponsored news outlet TASS. The article contained language that directly mirrored rhetoric employed by the Kremlin in the period leading up to its invasion of Ukraine.
In his piece, Medvedev accused Finland of being “Russophobic” and asserted that “the desire for profit at Russia’s expense was instilled in Finnish minds since the days of Hitler.”
He further contended that Helsinki had attempted to eradicate the “historical and cultural identity” of ethnic Russians and claimed that Finland joined NATO under the “pretense” of defense, when in reality, it was covertly preparing for war against Russia, as reported by the ISW.
Medvedev’s comments found resonance within the Kremlin. Multiple Kremlin officials, including President Putin, who stated that “there will be problems” after Finland’s accession to NATO, have argued that the alliance intends to use Finland as a “springboard” for an assault on Russia.
“Russia has been systematically establishing conditions to attack NATO over the past several years: Moscow is forming new divisions and optimizing its command and control headquarters on NATO’s eastern flank,” George Barros, a Senior Russia Analyst with ISW, informed Digital. “The Kremlin’s information warfare apparatus is fabricating claims and justifications asserting that Finland, the Baltic States, and Poland are not legitimate countries.
“These represent the foundational preparations for a future war that Moscow is actively undertaking,” he warned.
Sakaliene echoed these concerns and additionally highlighted Russia’s deployment of “soft power,” frequently through social and traditional media channels, to sway public opinion—a tactic she warned is “alarmingly effective.”
“We observe a portrait of an exceptionally aggressive nation that is allocating a disproportionate amount of its resources to bolster its military capabilities,” the defense minister stated. “Despite enduring significant losses weekly and monthly, they are making headway in Ukraine while simultaneously expanding their capacities.
“This raises substantial questions about whether this entire accumulation of military might is exclusively intended for Ukraine,” Sakaliene concluded.