President made a striking declaration this month, stating the U.S. is “endeavoring” to reclaim Bagram Airfield from the Taliban in Afghanistan, a facility abandoned over four years ago.
However, Bill Roggio, an expert analyst and senior editor for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ “Long War Journal,” cautioned that a major challenge exists with Trump’s recent ambition: will ensure Washington does not achieve this objective.
“Firstly, the Taliban would never agree to the U.S. returning. I would sooner…believe the Taliban would abandon its Sharia or Islamic law than believe it would allow the U.S. to come back,” Roggio conveyed to Digital.
He elaborated, “Even if the Trump administration could persuade the Taliban to consider permitting the U.S. to return to Bagram, the Chinese would react strongly.”
Roggio explained that both China and Russia have a vested interest in the U.S. remaining out of the region.
The American departure from the mineral-rich nation opened it up to China, allowing Beijing to extend its Belt and Road Initiative into a country—despite being governed by a terrorist organization—that it had previously been unable to access.
China, the first nation to appoint an ambassador to the in 2023, dispatched its foreign minister, Wang Yi, to Kabul in August for discussions with Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.
According to the Taliban, Beijing not only showed interest in Afghanistan’s mining opportunities, which are rich in minerals such as lithium, copper, iron, gold, and uranium, but also expressed openness to expanding trade with Kabul.
While China stands to benefit significantly from access to these minerals, the potential impact of trade and mining agreements with Beijing on Afghanistan’s severe economic situation could be critical for Kabul.
“The Chinese exert considerable influence over the Taliban, particularly regarding an issue like the U.S. return,” Roggio stated. “They would pressure the Taliban by potentially revoking mining rights, restricting trade, and ending political and diplomatic recognition. These factors are all important to the Taliban as they seek to develop as a government and gain legitimate recognition.”
He added, “The Taliban are less concerned about U.S. recognition than they are about recognition from the Chinese, or the Russians.”
Trump asserted that the agreement he brokered with the in Doha, Qatar, in 2020—which outlined the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by May 2021—did not include the Bagram Air Base.
“We intended to keep it,” Trump informed reporters from the U.K. last week.
However, the initial deal did not contain any provision allowing the U.S. to maintain forces at the base, located approximately 30 miles north of Kabul.
Trump also stated that a primary reason for wanting the base back is its proximity, being “an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons.” Yet, when questioned about the specific facility, neither the White House nor the Pentagon provided confirmation, and Digital could not identify a Chinese nuclear facility that close to Afghanistan’s border through open-source intelligence.
Regardless of whether a Chinese nuclear facility exists near the former American base in Afghanistan, Roggio warned that the economic ties being established between Beijing and Kabul are “dangerous.”
He emphasized, “The deepening Taliban-Chinese relationship is something we should be concerned about. China can provide the Taliban with access to technology—military technology. They could supply them with the resources they require.”
Roggio indicated that a mining agreement could inject “billions” into the Taliban’s coffers.
“Why is this significant? Because al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations are using Afghanistan as an operational base,” Roggio noted, mentioning that al-Qaeda is reportedly operating training camps in 13 of the nation’s 34 provinces.
Roggio also reported that the Taliban permits to run religious schools, safe houses for terrorist network leaders and their families who travel between Afghanistan and Iran, as well as a weapons storage depot.
“Afghanistan’s situation today appears considerably worse than it did on September 10, 2001, the day before the 9/11 attacks,” Roggio concluded.