While President cautions against “zero tolerance” for narco-states in the Americas, China is strengthening its influence in Venezuela — an economically and politically precarious move that could soon confront U.S. authority.
Last month, American defense officials informed Reuters that a U.S. aircraft carrier group entered the Southern Command area, encompassing the Caribbean and South America’s northern coast, to observe drug trafficking paths connected to Venezuela’s military hierarchy.
The Pentagon stated that the USS Gerald R. Ford, with over 4,000 personnel and numerous tactical aircraft, would “enhance U.S. capabilities to identify, track, and interfere with illegal operatives and operations.” The mission’s objective, it further noted, is to “weaken and dismantle international criminal enterprises.”
Reportedly, in the subsequent weeks, Venezuelan military personnel were undergoing training for guerrilla warfare tactics to counter a potential U.S. attack — a development Reuters suggested indicated “growing apprehension within Caracas.”
Amidst this tension, Beijing announced a “zero-tariff” trade pact with Caracas during the Shanghai Expo 2025, a declaration made by Deputy Minister for Foreign Trade Coromoto Godoy. Venezuelan authorities mentioned that this agreement spans approximately 400 tariff classifications, eliminating tariffs on products from both China and Venezuela.
Although the specifics of its full implementation are still awaiting confirmation, the intention is evident: Beijing is rapidly integrating itself into an economy under sanctions that Washington has aimed to cut off.
“This appears to be an attempt by China to entirely control the Venezuelan economy,” remarked Gordon Chang, an authority on China’s international trade strategy. “It will severely damage Venezuela’s domestic industries.”
“Venezuela primarily exports oil to China and scarcely anything else,” he commented. “China, naturally, produces a vast array of goods. Venezuelan manufacturing is unlikely to see a resurgence in the near future — it’s heading in the reverse direction.”
Chang further suggested that Maduro’s swift engagement with Beijing is driven by apprehension over Trump’s subsequent actions.
“Maduro likely has no alternative,” he stated. “He understands he faces a challenge in Donald J. Trump. With a U.S. aircraft carrier positioned close to his coastline and substantial military resources approaching, he is in dire need of an ally.”
“While the zero-tariff agreement might provide Maduro with momentary respite, it will only intensify his reliance,” Chang concluded. “I do not view this trade agreement as beneficial for Venezuela; rather, I see it solidifying China’s dominance over the country.”
From Beijing’s standpoint, this tariff-exempt agreement establishes a commercial and strategic entry point into the Western Hemisphere precisely as Washington intensifies its sanctions.
Estimates from the Council on Foreign Relations indicate that China has provided Venezuela with approximately $60 billion in loans over the last twenty years, largely compensated through oil deliveries — a figure that Chinese and Venezuelan authorities continued to reference in 2025.
“China has utilized substantial loans and the deployment of satellite positioning and monitoring systems to gain strategic command over Venezuela’s critical infrastructure,” stated Isaias Medina III, an Edward Mason Fellow at Harvard University and a former Venezuelan diplomat assigned to the U.N. Security Council.
Medina alluded to the El Sombrero satellite ground station in Venezuela’s Guárico province — a collaborative China-Venezuela initiative that Western analysts, including a recent Associated Press article, characterize as part of an extensive space cooperation network granting Beijing an intelligence presence in Latin America.
Medina suggested that the recent agreement should be interpreted as one component of a broader anti-Western alliance.
“Operating under the guise of ‘21st Century Socialism,’ a concept introduced by Hugo Chávez and further developed by Nicolás Maduro, the country has transformed into an advanced operational hub for administrations explicitly opposing the United States and its partners,” he explained.
“Iran, Russia, China, and Cuba have established a firm presence across Venezuela, employing the nation as a staging ground for unconventional warfare, espionage activities, and the dissemination of their ideologies across Latin America.”
He observed that “Russia’s military involvement comprises over $12 billion in weapon sales, continuous defense collaboration, and the participation of the Wagner Group in military drills,” concurrently, Cuban military consultants continue to be integrated within Venezuelan security frameworks.
“Iran has capitalized on this situation to implant terrorist surrogates like Hezbollah and Hamas, utilizing Venezuela as both a financial center and a supply route. These operations reach into former training sites in Syria, where Venezuelan agents and hired soldiers have been trained in hybrid warfare strategies,” he continued. “Iran’s objectives also encompass potential drone production and uranium extraction.”
“The Maduro administration, protected by the lack of rule of law or legitimate governance, has substituted effective state management with criminal undertakings,” Medina asserted. “This is not an anomaly; it represents the established order.”
“The humanitarian consequences are disastrous,” he further stated. “More than 30% of Venezuela’s populace has been displaced by force. Famine has been employed as a method of societal control, constituting a war crime under global legal standards. Despite the gravity of these offenses, numerous United Nations member countries persist in acknowledging and interacting with this unlawful government, thus contributing to its exemption from punishment. The inability to resolve this crisis with firm action permits a coalition of adversaries, both governmental and non-governmental, to exert influence perilously close to U.S. borders.”
At present, Washington’s sanctions program continues to restrict Venezuela’s oil export routes. In March 2025, Reuters indicated that U.S. warnings of tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan crude led to a brief interruption in deliveries to China. Beijing rejected these actions as “unlawful extraterritorial measures” and pledged ongoing collaboration — yet has not specified how it plans to implement the new tariff-free agreement.
Chang noted that the fundamental situation remains unaltered: China is unable to shield Caracas from American military might.
“It can undoubtedly initiate a propaganda offensive,” he remarked, “but it lacks the capacity to deploy military power in the area. The outcome truly depends on President Trump’s decisions. China possesses insufficient military strength to resist American intervention if Trump opts for it.”
Medina concurred that the implications extend beyond financial matters. “Only three hours from U.S. territory, this narco-terrorist government has transformed into a focal point for criminal activity, illicit financial transactions, and severe human rights violations,” he stated, advocating for a Western approach that includes “diplomatic ostracism, specific sanctions, and, where appropriate, defensive military positioning.”