German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and others are in discussions with a hesitant Belgium about what to do with billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets held in the country.
As per the Belgian government, at least €197 billion (around $224 billion) of sanctioned Russian assets are held in Euroclear, a financial institution based in Brussels. The European Commission intends to seize these assets and transfer them to Ukraine as part of a €165 billion financial package for Ukraine (roughly $190) to assist in paying its bills and funding the war effort.
Prime Minister Bart De Wever is worried that seizing Russia’s assets could be regarded by Russia as an act of war and prompt Russian President Vladimir Putin to retaliate against Belgium.
, the deputy head of the country’s Security Council, even issued a threatening statement against Brussels and its European allies in an incendiary post on X.
“If the crazy EU does steal frozen Russian assets for a’reparations loan,’ we may consider it a casus belli with all the relevant consequences for Brussels & Co.,” the former Russian president stated.
EU leaders are facing a tight deadline, as Ukraine is expected to run out of funds for the war in April and EU leaders will meet on Dec. 18 to make a final decision on how to support Ukraine’s budgetary requirements for the next two years.
Key European leaders have made multiple trips to Belgium to persuade the government to approve the reparation proposal. The plan has broad support within the, but Belgium’s prime minister has so far obstructed it.
“Belgium’s unique situation regarding the use of the frozen Russian assets is undeniable and must be dealt with in a way that all European states share the same risk. We agreed to continue our talks with the goal of reaching a consensus at the European Council meeting on December 18,” von der Leyen posted on X after meeting with Merz and De Wever.
Merz said after the meeting that Belgium’s concerns were valid and should be taken into account.
“What we decide now will shape Europe’s future: Belgium’s particular susceptibility in the matter of utilizing the frozen Russian assets is unquestionable and must be addressed so that all European states bear the same risk,” said on X.
Robert Kremzner, an associate analyst at the New Lines Institute and an expert in Russian gray zone warfare, said Russia has several ways to target Belgium without crossing the threshold of open conflict.
“Russia has been very active in employing what is known as gray zone warfare, where Russia conducts hostile actions against other nations that are below the level of war, and thus difficult to respond to,” Kremzner told Digital.
He mentioned that some examples include information warfare,, election interference, GPS spoofing, cutting undersea cables, and an increasing number of arson attacks and assassinations.
The Belgian government, along with Euroclear, is seeking financial guarantees from fellow EU member states before committing to support the plan. De Wever is afraid that Belgium will ultimately be held accountable and forced to return the seized assets if a sanctions deal is negotiated with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
The European Commission said it has implemented safeguards to protect Member States and financial institutions from potential retaliatory measures by Russia.
If Belgium remains uncooperative, von der Leyen could use the EU’s Article 122 emergency powers, which would enable the commission to proceed with the proposal based on majority rule.
Digital contacted the Belgian government and Euroclear but did not receive a response before publication.