A security specialist informed Digital that the initial 48 hours are crucial in the search for an American Christian missionary abducted from the region, who may have already been moved between areas controlled by the Islamic State or its affiliated groups.
Bryan Stern, the founder of the crisis response organization Grey Bull Rescue, stated in an exclusive interview with Digital that in most organized kidnappings, the individuals who initially seize a hostage are seldom the same ones who maintain their custody.
“What often occurs in these situations is that whoever took the hostage isn’t who is ultimately holding onto the hostage,” Stern explained. “The individuals who hold hostages are typically more intelligent, more capable, and less expendable… so reaching them as quickly as possible is demonstrably important.”
Stern asserted that every hour that passes reduces the likelihood of recovery. In numerous instances, transfers occur between groups with varied objectives—ranging from ransom demands to propaganda—making it challenging to ascertain the captors’ desires.
“It’s straightforward to identify who initially seized someone, but once individuals begin to be traded like cards, it becomes difficult to understand what the current holding party wants,” he remarked.
These groups often operate with their own chains of command and internal hierarchies, each pursuing distinct objectives.
“All those different factors influence how you will retrieve someone, and the most perilous action is to send in special forces to engage everyone,” Stern commented. “That represents the highest-risk endeavor we undertake because there is no margin for error.”
U.S. officials confirmed their awareness of the kidnapping, which took place in Niamey, approximately 100 yards from Niger’s presidential palace. The missionary, a pilot for the evangelical organization Serving in Mission, was reportedly transported northward toward an area under the control of an ISIS offshoot.
A spokesperson indicated that embassy officials are collaborating closely with local authorities and that the Trump administration considers the safe return of the U.S. citizen to be a primary concern. The U.S. Embassy has also restricted staff movements to armored vehicles and prohibited visits to restaurants and open-air markets.
Stern characterized the region as having “31 flavors,” signifying the presence of various entities from Russian proxies to criminal gangs and Islamic fundamentalists.
While it is simple to assume particular parties were behind the abduction, Stern cautioned, “until you know…it remains speculation.”
“At some point, somebody will ask for something, one hopes,” he said. “It’s very concerning when they don’t ask for anything… the direst outcome is a situation without demands. In such a case, there is no strategy other than to locate and eliminate them, and hopefully survive that process.”
For now, efforts are focused on obtaining proof of life and establishing communication.
Relevant authorities are likely monitoring surveillance and communications from the region, but Stern advised that any rescue attempt would be “the most dangerous thing special operations does.”
Officials have not disclosed whether any group has claimed responsibility or issued any demands.
Michael Dorgan and Paul Tilsley of Digital provided contributions to this report.