Analysts suggest that the departure of American and European forces from African Sahel nations, coupled with their replacement by, has resulted in a surge of terrorism orchestrated by jihadists.
The Sahel region comprises a group of countries stretching from west to east across Africa, situated directly south of the Sahara Desert. Data from the Global Terrorism Index indicates that 3,885 deaths in 2024—approximately 51% of all worldwide terrorism-related casualties—took place in the Sahel.
Military governments that seized control through coups, particularly in Niger and Mali, have expelled Western military personnel from at least three Sahelian nations: Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Following an 11-year presence, the U.S. was instructed to cease its counter-terrorism drone missions from last year. French troops were forced out of Mali in 2022, having spent nine years combating Islamist extremist groups.
These governments have sought protection from the Kremlin-backed private mercenary force, the Africa Corps (previously the Wagner Group). However, reports suggest the Russian personnel are primarily focused on mineral extraction rather than assisting in the suppression of jihadist expansion.
Civilians frequently suffer the most from jihadist assaults in the Sahel. Last month, it was reported that Islamist militants on motorcycles killed 22 individuals in an assault on Tillaberi village in western Niger. According to reports, fifteen of those deceased were families present at a child’s naming ceremony. In January, in northern Mali, Russian mercenaries purportedly collaborated with government troops in the execution of 10 non-combatants, among them a two-year-old child.
The Observer Research Foundation stated in August that “factions linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda are persisting with their territorial and strategic expansion” within the Sahel, “exploiting deficiencies in governance and inadequate security forces to penetrate coastal West African nations like Benin and Togo.”
Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), informed Digital that “the conditions in the Sahel, especially in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, have worsened considerably since the American and French departures from these countries post-coups.”
Roggio, who also edits the FDD’s Long War Journal, further commented, “The truth is, the situation was already problematic before the U.S. and French withdrew from the area, but the reduction in American and French troops has intensified the progress made by jihadists.”
“Both JNIM (Jama’a Nusrat Al-Islam wa al-Muslimin), al Qaeda’s regional affiliate, and the have achieved progress and hold substantial territories within these nations… The military regimes in these three states sought to remove Western influence and have consequently engaged Russia, through Wagner—now ironically named the Africa Corps—for security.”
Roggio continued, “The Russian contingents possess minimal motivation to enhance security, instead prioritizing the acquisition of mineral assets for financial gain.” He elaborated, “This dynamic exacerbates the jihadist uprisings, which target civilians trapped between these extremists and, in some instances, ineffective or absent governments. Currently, the U.S. has limited options, given that these administrations are anti-Western and oppose the re-deployment of American and French troops. Furthermore, I question whether either nation possesses the political resolve or inclination to return.”
Dr. Frans Cronje, a political and economic analyst, mentioned in a conversation with Digital that a sophisticated political and media strategy was employed leading up to the 2023 coup in Niger. This campaign aimed to sway public sentiment against Western influence, frequently leveraging anti-colonial narratives prevalent in Western political discourse.
Cronje further explained, “French and U.S. attempts at stabilization were branded as imperialist meddling and worse. This occurred even as French and U.S. soldiers were already struggling intensely against a that endangered the civilian populace. One could argue that, even without the coup, the Western stance was unsustainable, unless they were willing to commit increasingly larger quantities of weaponry and supplies to a conflict situated far from Paris and Washington.”
Cronje concurred with Roggio’s evaluation of the Kremlin’s stance, stating, “have now occupied the void created by the French and Americans, yet Russia’s primary goal is to secure resource supply lines—not to protect civilians.”
He concluded, “It is challenging to determine if this outcome was preventable. The sole means of doing so would have involved conducting political and media campaigns to cultivate widespread support for Western involvement, subsequently establishing a pro-Western government, and furthermore, significantly augmenting Western military assets, including personnel, stationed in Niger. These measures were likely beyond the scope for Western powers—and in many aspects, justifiably so.”
A spokesperson for the State Department informed Digital that “the United States has interacted with Sahelian nations through a practical methodology centered on promoting our foreign policy objectives. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Will Stevens’ recent trips to the area reaffirmed the U.S. government’s collaboration with host country officials to foster American commercial prospects and address crucial counterterrorism strategies to lessen dangers to U.S. staff and assets.”