Just six months after the announcement that it would begin drawing down U.S. forces in Syria, the U.S. confirmed this week that it will also start reducing its troop numbers in Iraq under an agreement reached by the Biden administration – a decision security experts warn could prove beneficial for Iran and its “shadow empire.”
Following the Trump administration’s plans announced six months prior to reduce U.S. forces in Syria, the Biden administration verified this week it would also decrease troop levels in Iraq through a new accord – a move security analysts caution could bolster Iran and its “shadow empire.”
These changes have occurred amidst an evolving threat from the terrorist network ISIS and a growing U.S. desire to conclude “forever wars.”
However, a diminished U.S. presence in both nations has left security experts deeply concerned about the power vacuum this will create in both countries, alongside the immediate threat Iran poses.
For decades, its influence has been expanding in both Iraq and Syria, and it has established a complex and deeply integrated presence across the region militarily, politically, economically, and socially, making its influence difficult to divert or thwart, even amid a regime change in Syria.
“The relationship between Islamic Revolutionary Iran and Syria dates back to the ’80s. It’s not something that just started with the advent of the Syrian civil war,” Gregg Roman, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum, told Digital. “They took 40 years of relations and eventually turned that into an enterprise.”
Iran has utilized Shia militant forces from various origins, including Iraq, Afghanistan, and Lebanon, to construct a “parallel military infrastructure” in coordination with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that has effectively transformed Syria into an “Iranian forward operating base.”
According to an investigative report compiled by the Middle East Forum, utilizing on-the-ground sources embedded in Iranian military installations across Syria since 2018, Iran has not only built underground tunnels and weapons depots for its use. Tehran has also deeply embedded itself into the everyday lives of Syrians through an integrated system that has blended military duties with civil programs.
Its command structure also transcends traditional nation-state borders by integrating Iranian, and Iraqi commanders.
While Iran now faces opposition in Syria following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime with the December 2024 takeover by the Sunni paramilitary organization Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HST) – once identified by the U.S. as deriving from al-Qaeda – Tehran has the potential to capitalize on the lack of a unified government across Syria, as well as an immensely complex geopolitical dynamic where Israel, Turkey, and Russia are all vying for greater influence in the nation.
Roman pointed out that if HST, in coordination with elements in the northeast or the Druze in the southwest, are not able to create a “bulwark” against Iranian influence, then Tehran could be well positioned to expand its regional interests under its “shadow empire.”
“Perhaps most concerning is the precedent established by Iran’s success in constructing this shadow empire,” the report found. “The ability to build parallel military infrastructure, operate independently of host government control, and maintain strategic capabilities despite international scrutiny provides a template that could be replicated elsewhere in the region.”
Though its strategy may be slightly different, Iran has repeatedly used power vacuums to extend its reach and counter U.S. influence, as seen in situations where it backed the Taliban, and in Iraq, where it began backing Shia militia groups fighting the U.S. as early as 2003.
“The Iranians have a strategy in Iraq, and it’s effective,” Bill Roggio, expert terrorism analyst and senior editor of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ “Long War Journal,” told Digital. “They’re using military, political and economic means to achieve their goals, and their proximity to Iraq really helps them achieve that.”
Roggio said there are hundreds of thousands of Iran-backed militants in Iraq who are largely part of a collective that was heavily influential in fighting ISIS and is part of the Iraqi Armed Forces under the command of the prime minister, but which are also heavily influenced by Tehran.
“They wield significant influence in the Iraqi government. They occupy a large, dominant block in the Iraqi parliament. And these militias also have economic power,” Roggio said. “Iran built these militia forces along the same lines as Hezbollah, and they essentially want them to ultimately become like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is in Iran.”
Both Roman and Roggio expressed concern over the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region and, more significantly, the removal of U.S. influence at a time when Iran is looking to advance its interests.
“We haven’t learned the lessons of Afghanistan and even the lessons of Iraq,” Roggio said. “I don’t care if we have 100 or 100,000 troops in Afghanistan or anywhere else. Do we have the right troops to achieve the mission that we put out for them?
“We talk about numbers of troops. … We’re not really talking about what is our mission in Iraq? Is it a counter-ISIS mission? Is it a stave off Iranian influence mission?
“And do we have the right mixture of military and diplomatic and political and economic influence in Iraq to achieve those goals? I don’t believe we do.”
Both experts pointed out that the U.S. has a long history of not taking Iran and the threat it poses seriously enough, a problem that has spanned decades across both Republican and Democratic administrations.
“The Iranians are patient. They’re operating on timeframes of decades and generations. And we aren’t patient. We operate in timeframes and two and four-year election cycles,” Roggio said. “Ultimately, Iran is looking to drive the U.S. from the region and expand its influence in neighboring countries, be it Afghanistan, be it Iraq, be it the Gulf states.
“The ultimate goal is to get the U.S. out so it can expand its influence.”