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Typically, the initial Friday of each month sees the release of a standard set of government statistics, known as the . Financial markets respond, politicians posture, and most citizens continue their daily routines, anticipating the approaching weekend.
However, the current era is far from ordinary, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has lost its neutral standing due to President Donald Trump’s efforts to remove its head after he disapproved of the figures. Last Friday, Trump abruptly dismissed Erika McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, following her team of data experts revising downward the employment figures for May and June. Characteristically, Trump concluded these adjustments were intended to humiliate him and propagated the theory that it was a scheme to manipulate data. This action was comparable to dismissing a National Weather Service meteorologist for identifying a hurricane and reporting it.
This marks a significant change that extends far beyond merely counting employed Americans. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, an autonomous division within the Department of Labor overseen by a Senate-approved expert, serves as a repository for quantitative analysts whose outputs influence everything from interest rates, investment returns, contractual agreements, and corporate decisions. The BLS comprises a 2,000-person team of specialists who wield substantial—though subtle—influence over the global economy, primarily due to the trust that they maintain accurate records.
The federal government is set to issue its inaugural employment report on September 5, following Trump’s dismissal of McEntarfer. The reception of these statistics will likely be influenced by the recent disruption. For instance, if the upcoming BLS report indicates a significant increase in August hiring, will investors, both domestically and internationally, genuinely trust it? By pursuing instant gratification, Trump might have inadvertently deprived himself of an opportunity to celebrate, marking another self-inflicted setback.
Numerous impactful, long-term decisions derive from the various reports produced by the BLS. When confidence in official government data falters, events can quickly spiral out of control; consider how anti-science attitudes impacted the Covid-19 pandemic and contributed to a wider decline in vaccination rates.
Trump’s predecessors generally favored consistency over ostentation, recognizing the significance of presenting a reliable presence from Washington ever since World War II reconfigured global affairs. Many of Trump’s impulsive decisions—ranging from his trade and tariff disputes to his repeated threats to dismiss the Federal Reserve chairman—are eroding this image. Numerous international leaders now perceive declining U.S. influence, given that many of the nation’s choices appear to lack clear strategic objectives beyond fulfilling Trump’s desire for disruption and validation.
In Washington, the everyday has become . Yet, the BLS change is entirely unprecedented. Although Presidents might not consistently favor the monthly report they receive, they could previously trust that they were obtaining the most precise possible representation of the economy. The same applied to Wall Street, which relies on these figures as an unbiased economic indicator.
“Reliable data benefits not only the Federal Reserve and the government but also the private sector,” stated Fed Chair Jay Powell two days prior to McEntarfer’s termination. “For a century, the United States has led in this regard.”
With his sudden action last week, Trump jeopardizes that benchmark. As Trump contemplates appointing a new BLS head possibly within this week, it is assumed he seeks an individual who agrees with his view that only data portraying him favorably is permissible. This is a substantial gamble, one that has consistently failed. The Greek debt crisis stemmed from a deceptive accounting system, and Argentina’s international loan default resulted from fabricated inflation figures.
Looking back further in history reveals the crucial function government statisticians frequently perform in holding leaders responsible. In 1937, Josef Stalin ordered his census chief executed and when the data conflicted with the Soviet leader’s publicized claims. These unfavorable statistics remained hidden in Soviet archives until 1989.
Trump has consistently admired such authoritarian assertiveness, yet he also desires validation from Wall Street, which values precise, consistent, and truthful data. If they turn to statisticians approved by Trump for these figures, they may soon become abruptly distrustful of a report that, until Trump chose to politicize it, was an essential service provided by Washington for decades with minimal controversy.
Understand the key developments in Washington. .