Several high-ranking officials have stated in recent years that China will invade Taiwan by 2027, including U.S. Secretary of State Pete Hegseth in May, the former Taiwanese Foreign Minister two years ago, and the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.
Given these predictions, it’s tempting to consider this timeline a certainty. However, there are many reasons why this might not occur, notably the concerning possibility that China could achieve its objectives in Taiwan without military force.
Invasion is a simple term that encompasses complex actions. China might attempt an amphibious invasion, potentially using the large, newly built ships with specialized landing barges seen earlier this year. However, this would be risky for a relatively inexperienced navy. A more probable scenario is a blockade, similar to the one Beijing implemented following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in 2022. China could also launch a massive cyberattack. Yet, even with these actions, Taiwan would likely resist and reject violence. And even if China were to ultimately succeed—a significant uncertainty—securing lasting peace would be a lengthy and challenging endeavor.
Furthermore, it is still likely that the U.S. would intervene, despite unpredictability. The risk of this escalating into a direct confrontation between the world’s two leading superpowers, rather than just a conflict between China and Taiwan, is genuine and concerning, even for leaders in Beijing.
Speculation about 2027 must be considered in light of the speakers and their motivations. It is understandable that Taiwanese individuals want the world to take the threat seriously, as they need to feel supported and protected. Moreover, the U.S. is engaged in a crucial struggle against China. Discussing a potential Taiwan invasion serves as a rallying point for the world to unite behind America and confront China before it takes action.
Unsurprisingly, the Chinese have remained largely silent on the matter. Xi himself has. However, he has avoided publicly suggesting any specific timeline. Despite the alarming qualities attributed to China’s current leaders, caution is a defining characteristic. Their domestic situation is, and the Party worries that an uprising is imminent. A significant military operation that fails would be precisely the catalyst for chaos. Therefore, they will not engage in conflict unless they are confident of success.
This is where the waiting game comes into play. From Beijing’s perspective, whether rightly or wrongly, there is daily evidence of the West’s decline. There is political on almost every issue (except, ironically, ). And a similar polarization can be observed in Taiwanese politics, where administration is engaged in , in a move widely seen as trying to gain more power.
China hopes that Taiwanese people will perceive the West as becoming increasingly weak and ineffective. The idea that blood is thicker than water will reinforce China’s primary argument for unification with Taiwan—shared cultural heritage. There is some evidence that perspectives on the island are shifting in this direction. A recent by The Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation revealed that while 49% considered America more reliable than China, a substantial 43% held the opposite view.
The idea of a gradual reunification would have seemed impossible even a decade ago. Today, it appears somewhat more plausible. And in the future, it might become a reality as the Western-led world order shows further signs of systemic decay. In the case of Taiwan, China only needs to win the psychological battle. To achieve this, it requires no landing craft or advanced ballistic missiles. It simply requires the West to continue to be divided.
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